All posts by Lucy Randall

The Price of Oil is Going Up and Here’s Why

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Bob Dudley, Group Chief Executive and a director of BP, predicted that the oil price will rise in the second half of the year as demand increases from America and China and supply begins to ease as the US shuts down production. “The fundamentals of demand are definitely increasing, demand for gasoline in North America, Chinese demand, Indian demand, it’s going up. And this [supply and demand] will get back into balance,” he said.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global oil consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels in 2015 grew by 1.3 million barrels per day and estimates that it will grow by 1.1 million b/d in 2016. The EIA also predicts U.S. supply will fall 700,000 b/d to 8.7 million b/d in 2016. Rising consumption and falling U.S. supply will help bring the oil market, which was oversupplied by 1.8 million barrels per day in Q3 2015, back into balance. This balance that will push oil prices up is also apparent by events playing out around the world. The global players that impact the price of crude oil are China, India and Africa who play a large part in demand, and Russia, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. who highly influence supply. Current developments in these countries are driving the growth and the re-balance of the crude oil market is beginning to occur.

  1. China’s economy is still growing. Despite concerns about the slowdown in the Chinese economy, their crude oil imports rose to a record level in February 2016. The Chinese government also set the GDP target growth at a range of 6.5 – 7% for this year. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said earlier this month at the 12th National People’s Congress meeting that their target growth rate is aligned with China’s goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society and takes into consideration the need to advance structural reform. China’s economy is not as good as it once was but it is still growing, just not as fast. It’s also important to realize that based on global demand growth rates, China’s impact on price is 10-20% of the drop at most.
  1. India has high demand. India grew faster than China did in 2015. They’re also the fastest growing major economy in the world with 2015 GDP growth of 7.5%. India’s thirst for crude oil has recently been growing by ~5%/year, i.e. 200,000 bbl/d and as much as 9% last year. Determined to be a manufacturing hub like China, their demand for energy will only push the price of crude oil upward.
  1. Africa is developing fast. Africa’s current oil demand is growing at an annual clip of ~4% with population rising to over two billion people by 2040. Six of the fastest growing esconomies hail from Africa ranging in annual GDP growth from 7% to 8.7%. These countries are already seeing tremendous growth and we expect to see a sizable increase in consumption and storage in these countries moving forward. Their rapid growth is expected to push up the price of crude oil in the long run.
  1. Saudi Arabia remains constant. We know that Saudi Arabia won’t be cutting production anytime soon but it’s evident they won’t be producing more oil than they did last year. This is because the Saudis are not making enough revenue from oil to support their economy. With oil revenues supporting over 50% of the economy, they’re falling short by about $20 Billion every month. To help stem the bleeding of cash, the government has moved to cut certain subsidies. For the balance, the country must dip into its foreign reserves to meet its budget obligations. As of November 2015, the IMF reported Saudi Arabia’s foreign reserves to be approximately $635B; of which approximately $423B were liquid and easily accessible. Based on these numbers, Saudi Arabia could go insolvent or bankrupt between late 2017 and mid-2018. They can’t afford to produce more oil.
  1. Russian turmoil forcing cutbacks. Russia is battling many hardships including 12% inflation, GDP decline of about 4%, 10% decline in average incomes, and western sanctions. President Putin also continues to fund the Assad regime fighting the war in Syria against Saudi backed rebels and ISIS. Their enormous expenses require $105/bbl to balance their budgets. With oil revenues supporting about 35% of the economy, the Russians are also losing about $20 Billion every month. The country can no longer afford to raise debt and will be forced to work with other producers to slow down production.
  1. The United States is cutting production. The US shale industry has proved resilient in the face of low prices. According to Wood Mackenzie, average shale break even costs have dropped from $70+/bbl to $50/bbl. Many companies are cash flow positive at $40/bbl and these numbers are expected to drop as technology evolves and efficiencies are uncovered. However, US producers must continue to fight hard to cover their operating expenses and interest payments and have already decreased production to stay afloat. EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to decline from 9.1 million b/d in the first quarter of 2016 to an average of 8.0 million b/d in the third quarter of 2017. Production of 8.0 million b/d would be 1.7 million b/d below the April 2015 level, which was the highest monthly production since April 1971.

The effects of low crude oil price are playing their harsh toll on all global markets and the price is already rising. Based on these current events, forecast your own scenarios with our free tool https://www.sevenlakes.online/Forecaster.html

Success Story: Data Discovery Results in Million Dollar Per Month Production Cost Savings in the Permian Basin!

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A leading challenge for an Oil and Gas company in the current market is cutting opex costs without hurting production. This struggle stems from the inability to evaluate their well production information. Without drill-down insights, they’re unable to make strategic changes to connect budget and resource planning. “Cost reduction, after all, is a resource allocation exercise in reverse—a systematic review of where and how the company will invest or divest scarce resources to ensure the success of its strategy. This approach to sustained cost transformation goes well beyond cost-cutting. It’s about doing more with less to generate major productivity gains. By identifying poorly deployed resources, leadership teams can reallocate them to activities that can strengthen or reposition the company.” - Peter Guarraia and Véronique Pauwels from Bain & Company. For an O&G company reallocating poorly deployed resources means the operations team must have access to well data that they trust at the time they are making instant daily decisions to cut expenses and balance production.

A logistics analyst at a leading E&P company in the Permian basin who runs their well analytics on Seven Lakes technologies describes the business value of trusted data in action. “Since December we have been working pretty hard on produced water - water hauling makes up 34% of LOE in our region of Southeast New Mexico. Strangely there are a lot of things that we would expect Production Engineers to have and they typically do not. It took me about two months after I started this project to understand how little we know about some of these things.” To find savings on this expense, the analyst began to excavate production information and processes. He immediately runs into roadblocks; he wasn’t able to see how much water the wells produced and compare that data to actual contract amounts. By using Seven Lakes’ solutions he connected these two separate data sources, and found that they were being over-charged because no one until his effort had recognized the volume discounts they left on the table. He unlocked a multimillion-dollar savings method.

“We just got back bids for water hauling in Southeast New Mexico and we are going to save close to a million dollars per month on water hauling and a lot of that is due to seeing what our actual production is, where it is and then be able to weight our pricing appropriately instead of throwing it out there and saying, ‘OK, we have some water in this area, how much is it going to cost us to haul it all?’ We can take them to a daily production quantity and then go from there and say, ‘Go from this township in New Mexico and you have a disposal well at this location so, what are you going to charge us for that?’ We are looking at significant savings.”

3 Steps to Dramatic Cost Savings and Improved Processes

1. Discover and act upon your well numbers- The Logistics Analyst didn’t let the unknown data barrier stop his efforts to reduce water disposal costs. He turned to the Engineering Analytics & Data Management department for answers. They gave him access to the production analytics solution that allowed him to analyze the water production reports and trends. With drill downs, state-of-the-art visualization and configurable reporting, he uncovered the information he needed. “By creating and applying filters, I have been able to find some data for which I had been looking and asking for, for about six months. With the solution, in 20 minutes or less, I was able to find and download water production for every well in the Cotton Draw Area.” With these reports, he proved the current contract rates didn’t match the production activity. They were paying the same haul-off disposal rates regardless of whether it was 5 barrels or 5,000 barrels. He was able to cut the disposal rates in by 30-50% by putting the contracts out for re-bid and negotiating lower rates.

2. Unify departments to develop efficient processes- The Logistics Analyst went one step further with the reports and collaborated with the Transportation Engineers to determine if the vendors were using the most efficient routes for disposal. He found that they weren’t, and based on the township and well locations, he was able to decrease the contract amounts by listing the routes that were most cost-effective. The logistics analyst collaborated with other departments to find all possible opportunities for cost savings. When the entire organization had access to production data and invoicing details, their collaboration led to data driven business decisions that set the company up for success.

3. Challenge operations to overcome production barriers- The logistics analyst changed the behavior for production because of the success he had with the production analytics solution. The engineers are now concentrating on top expenditures because they have access to actionable production trends. With the power to access real time data anywhere at any time, they are able to make production changes that are based on smart production insights. “Production only used to care about hydrocarbons but now water disposal is one of the highest spends for our LOE and that is what we have absolutely got to cut in the current environment. We can’t control what the price is, but we have to control our production costs. If you can put a dent in the highest cost, just by having information, then that is a pretty good deal!”

What a great deal indeed, he unlocked a $12M per year savings in their Southeast New Mexico Business Unit alone and they’re now moving on to their other business units and expect this savings to result in a total of $25 million to $30 million annually. By exploiting the companies’ data, the logistics analyst gained valuable insights that lead to an impactful cost cutting decision. He didn’t have to change the way the well was being maintained, but instead, found an improved process. The information was always there. Drastic cost reduction became possible only when the operations team was given technology that unlocked their data.

“What Marcus Lemonis from CNBC’s “The Profit” Would Say to O&G Operations”

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“People, products and processes are vital to keeping a business afloat!” – Marcus Lemonis states his business mantra loud and clear on CNBC’s “The Profit”. When Lemonis isn’t running his multibillion-dollar company, Camping World, he invests his money and time into struggling businesses that are in desperate need for his expert advice to increase their productivity and profits. In this TV series, Lemonis evaluates struggling businesses against his three-part principles which are the basis for his own company’s success. He unveils the operation processes that are holding the company back from achieving top productivity and introduces proficient practices to eliminate unnecessary costs.

It’s not a secret that COOs and Production Managers for oil and gas companies are under intense scrutiny to do what’s necessary to optimize cost performance and boost capital productivity. A study from Wood Mackenzie states, “Unit operating costs have steadily increased over the past decade by 60% in real terms. This prolonged period of cost escalation has been followed by a collapse in oil prices over a relatively short period – the average Brent price during the first half of 2015 was 43% below the average price in 2014.” O&G companies don’t have control over the price of oil that’s hurting their costs but they do have ability to improve their business processes to not only adapt to the current economy but survive and thrive. They must link budget and resource planning to strategy which is based on operational excellence. “Operational excellence occurs when the business has to function together as one cohesive unit.” -Michael Treacy and Fred Weirsema state in their book, “The Discipline of Market Leaders: Choose Your Customers, Narrow Your Focus, Dominate Your Market”.

Why is there a need for change in oil and gas operations?

Not only are O&G companies suffering from the low price of crude oil and escalated production costs but hedging contracts are expiring and they no longer have the robust budgets they once had. Without these budgets available to put more people and money to focus on field issues to maintain/improve production, they must focus on their production processes to reduce opex costs. The spotlight must be strategically placed on the front lines to protect the cash where it’s made out in the field. “I’ve never believed that you can cut your way to a profit. But I do believe that you can throw your profits in the trash can if you’re not focused on expenses.” Marcus Lemonis stresses the importance of concentrating on your costs and improving operations. Operations can only be improved when the entire organization works together. O&G companies must promote communication throughout the entire organization and empower their employees with integrated information systems that allow for fast management decisions.

Who should O&G companies invest in to achieve operational excellence and improve production? … Lease Operators

Without their hard work out in the field, the wells won’t be profitable. They have the critical responsibility to ensure that the wells are operating properly and efficiently. Their extensive daily duties are crucial to ensuring that production is at its full potential and downtime is reduced.

In each episode of “The Profit”, Lemonis analyzes a business’ product by evaluating each component and determining the total cost. O&G companies need to perform this constant analysis in order to maintain low production costs throughout the entire life of a well. The responsible Lease Operator should be able to understand the costs per bbl in terms of chemicals, water disposal, maintenance, repairs, workovers, etc as they pertain to his/her own wells to deliver effective cost savings while sustaining production. If the front line employee who works on the wells everyday does not have an efficient tool to record or look up this data, how can Operations make strategic decisions to cut production costs in a surgical manner? Operations must empower their field men with the most efficient tools, processes and resources so that they can sustain and improve production which will result in lower opex costs. Lemonis vows that operating processes are key to ensuring a business’ efficiency and opportunity to scale. COOs and Production Managers have the ability to enable their Lease Operators with intuitive tools and technology that will allow them to gain insights, and collect quality field data by enabling automatic validation of field data entry while allowing for the necessary mobility. By investing in the front line, companies acquire the capability to improve production and make a positive impact on cost, revenue and overall profitability of underlying assets.

So what are 4 pieces of advice Mr. Lemonis might provide to a Lease Operator? Stay tuned…

Proven Ways IT has Driven Operational Excellence through Data

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According to Chris Niven, IDC Energy Insights Research Director, “Oil and gas companies are faced with intense pressure to deal with low oil prices. Now is a good time to tighten the belt and focus on becoming more efficient and operate smarter. The companies that will survive and prosper are the ones that know how to leverage enabling technologies like cloud and mobility to help automate and optimize processes and apply analytics to improve operations output. If a company does not have operations excellence, they need to get it.”

A big reason E&P companies find it difficult to compete in a downturn is inconsistent data quality that results in substandard decision making throughout an organization from production, capex and opex. Examples include disparate and outdated spreadsheets from numerous reporting systems and the inability for all personnel to view and analyze the same data. It takes weeks to organize the data and when they finally put it in a report, it’s outdated and not in an easy-to-digest format that would allow operations to properly analyze and act upon it. Without all divisions of the workforce having near real time data access, they’re unable to communicate and collaborate to make fast, actionable data driven decisions that focus on production trends and downtime to improve operational effectiveness. By analyzing downtime across multiple dimensions, managers are able to visualize the most significant downtime reasons and implement different operation methods and design. “We have reduced downtime by 50%. We used to be at about 5% companywide downtime and we have cut it in half in terms of % of production loss.” – Production Manager from Leading E&P Company using Seven Lakes’ Downtime Solution.

Why the lack of operational efficiency in the Oil and Gas Industry?

Back in the boom times, E&P companies didn’t have to really dig into the data and scrutinize the numbers. They were growing rapidly and purchased different technology systems for each department and function just to keep up with the expansion and prosperous periods. These systems were bought for production volume, accounting, budgeting and reserve estimates. As the data started rolling in, companies had to dedicate an army of analysts to dig into each siloed system and come up with potentially conflicting insights. This left operations with siloed guesswork, reports and the inability for operators, engineers and managers to make knowledgeable, tailored and goal oriented decisions. An industry study from Cisco states that for oil and gas firms to operate efficiently, they must eliminate the siloed approach they have traditionally taken regarding digital technology selection and innovation.

Who has the ability to turn an organization in a down market? … The answer lies in the hands of IT!

IT is in the unique position to pull the company through this economic downturn. With every aspect of an oil and gas company - drilling and completions, economics, production field data capture - revolving around data, data has become the new oil. By implementing built for purpose oil and gas specific master data management systems, the IT department is able to bridge the divide between siloed systems and enterprise solutions that feature mobility and big data. Imagine giving your lease operator the power to record volume information and well parameters with a simple device such as an iPad or Windows tablet and then they have the ability to view what the theoretical production should be and have a real-time view on their potential performance gap. Operations can then use these reliable and unified reports to pinpoint errors and perform on-the-fly well reviews. They will also be able to strategically cut costs on anything from administration and invoice errors to overspends on a per-asset, per-division level. “Post deployment of the LOS Solution, we caught a few overcharges that we wouldn’t have caught if we didn’t have the dashboards. It resulted in about $40K of invoices credited back to us.” – Joseph Jones, Production Engineer at Concho Resources.

Efficient implemented solutions led by the CIO add maximum value with the least amount of technology. Operations will be able to strategically cut costs on anything from administration and invoice errors to overspends on a per-asset, per-division level. They take action and optimize cost performance by reducing cost between to 2-8% per quarter and 12% over the course of a year. With Seven Lakes’ analytics solutions, they drill down to the invoice level, easily access snapshots at different levels in hierarchy for a LOE, profitability and G&A; and monitor well watch-lists that identify top or bottom wells based on margin, lifting cost and expenses.

3 Ways to Take Reporting to a New Level in Today’s Digital Oil Field

1) Choose software that can work with all systems. Companies have spent millions of dollars implementing enterprise systems. However, these systems don’t speak with each other and companies aren’t receiving value out of their investments. Invest in software that delivers consistent, trustable data and insights across an entire organization, from corporate to the field which allows you to boost production and optimize capital and operational expenditures. “Part of being able to reduce our capex and come 5% under our original capex guidance definitely comes from being able to gain better insights into our AFEs via the AFE Dashboard” – CIO, at leading E&P company in the Williston Basin.

2) Invest in intelligence, not just data. There are several analytics toolkits that promise a solution you can build in-house but this implementation could take months and require on premise resources. Choose systems that are already built and give your stakeholders and field a solution today. Expect advance analytics that include readymade business data models that map to your business. Don’t be confined to a predetermined set of reports that don’t allow filters to meet the requirements of a changing environment. “One of the biggest advantages overall for our office and field guys is the ability to go into our LOS solution and drill down to the actual invoice behind the expenses.” – Production Engineer, Large Permian Basin Operator.

3) Make mobile a mandate. Think from the ground up. Operational excellence does not happen behind a desk, it begins with your lease operator out in the field. Give them the ability to instantly log their findings into a reliable tool such as an iPad or Windows tablet. Don’t make them jot it down on a grease sheet and then ask them to drive back to the field office to input their data into a system. Give them more time to work on maintaining their wells and less time driving to and from the office. A large private independent E&P company in the Eagle Ford shale, uses 20 Ford F-150s, by using Seven Lakes FDG, they saw a 20% reduction in “data entry” mileage (40 miles per truck per day). In the Eagle Ford shale alone, they saved $150,000/year in vehicle mileage/maintenance costs (assuming $0.54/mile vehicle mileage/maintenance cost per the IRS). Companywide this is an approximate $600K annual opex savings!

Reduction in OPEX is Achievable

Accuracy, speed and transparency is the name of the game with well cost management today. From COOs and CFOs right down to the on-site well engineers, the entire delivery chain needs to see very detailed cost level data, sometimes even to the invoice level. When organizations are able to achieve this level of insight into costs, they are able to make intelligent decisions and enforce sound accounting procedures. The detailed view of organizational costs provided by Seven Lakes is regularly cited as a key contributor to significant reductions in operating expenditures for fast-growing companies. The time is now for IT to take the next step and calculate how you can minimize operational expenditures.

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SAVINGS MISSION: Optimize Your Cost Cutting Efforts and Maximize Productivity

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About 14 months ago, talk to any Oil and Gas professional and you are likely to hear a story that goes, “A few years ago we were operating 100 wells, now we are in excess of 1,500 wells.” At that time, it made sense for E&P companies to acquire new assets and start drilling new wells. Why was that possible? At a time when oil sold at $60.70 per barrel, it only made sense for operators to acquire new assets and start drilling new wells. Grow.

That drilling boom over the next five years resulted in operators with $550 billion in bonds and loans due for repayment. BloombergBusiness reveals that the number of Oil and Gas company bonds with yields of 10 percent or more tripled in the past year. The ratio of net debt to earnings is the highest in two decades. Maximize Capital.

Fast forward to now, today. At $30 per barrel and fluctuating, E&P companies must now do a lot more than grow and add on capital. They have to produce smarter with wells they’re already pumping, and produce more barrels for the same OPEX costs. High achieving operators are reaching smarter production methods in a few focused ways - reducing deferments like breakdowns, poor equipment performance, and unplanned downtime. Achieving such smarter actionable goals demands integrated company-wide systems, a requirement to track/monitor highest downtime wells and categories.

Sounds Easy. So, Why Don’t E&P Operators Use Their Data?

“It wasn’t until we were able to start tracking and monitoring things like lifting cost per barrel that we were able to compare how wells were performing,” explains a Production Engineer for a Seven Lakes mid-western upstream customer. To further expound, it’s not just about tracking and monitoring data, it’s the ability for the entire enterprise to view and trust the same information to make decisions. For example, a customer of ours achieved its corporate goal of cutting its downtime in half by focusing on the greatest downtime categories. The field was able to focus on immediate corrective actions allowing the company to reach its downtime reduction goal.

What happens to companies that don’t have access to these insights? Reports have shown that most wells lose 12-13% of their potential production, 8-9% of that percentage is due to unplanned downtime. Without the ability to compare and analyze downtime across multiple dimensions with drill-down to detail reports, the field operators lose more than just uncovering ways to increase production, they lose the ability to pause the bleeding that comes with unplanned downtime and broken equipment. They are missing out on exposing anomalies discovered when the field operators are all viewing the same detailed data and reports to make time-sensitive decisions on well operations. The intelligence they could be uncovering is monumental in efforts to maximize production. These irregular findings that surface empower them to compare various production methods and carry out the best practices across the organization.

How Do You Get Everyone to View the Same Information? …Use Your Trusted Data and Maximize Production.

The answers lie in speeding up and automating the process of collecting data from many source systems, cleaning it up and then presenting the same and trusted data and reports to everyone in the same organization. Companies now have access to technology that solves these issues in weeks, not months. We observe that high-performing operators don’t just rely on gut feelings and common wisdom. They augment with real-time insights into performance at each well level. They dynamically route pumpers to the right wells, while the pumpers are still making rounds, throughout their shift. With data, you can overlay and compare information such as well/tubing pressure, downtime, production deferments, and field jobs/workovers. Only then can you strategically and specifically focus your efforts to maximize production.

We all want to achieve maximum productivity. The ability to achieve these goals lies within a company’s ability to trust and act upon their data. Assess your production metrics against your peers, and learn how you can maximize production and optimize OPEX. Calculate Now.

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Proven Ways for Leaner LOE without Sacrificing Performance for Oil and Gas Operators

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“A company that makes good decisions quickly has a higher metabolism, which allows it to act on opportunities and overcome obstacles.” - Harvard Business Review

Surgical Approach to Operational Expenses
The technological advances of unconventional oil has come at the price of a never ending OPEX treadmill that we face today. E&Y reports that OPEX has been rising at an average of 10% rise YoY . When current oil prices do not give us the flexibility in our upper limits, experience shows that broad based mandates on operational expenses can often impact production performance negatively. For instance, issuing a chemicals cost reduction mandate sounds practical on paper especially when that is the highest general cost code. Except when you consider that without truly knowing costs applied to each asset, some of these wells might already have lowered their chemical costs down, and now enforcing this new blanket mandate begins to negatively penalize production of assets that have managed their chemical costs well. Wouldn’t it be far more helpful to identify the managers in the field who have contained such costs and cross-pollinate best practices across the company?

Mold Behavior in the Field Using Technology
Forward thinking Oil and Gas professionals are providing trusted, actionable insights to the field and ensuring that everyone in the organization is looking at the same information to make collaborative decisions. Grounded in transformative business processes and technology solutions, one Seven Lakes’ customer with 6,000 wells has benefited from reduction of 5-10% in most of their cost codes. Such leading companies bring onboard highly adoptable enterprise-wide technology solutions that remove data silos, improve field data capture, and ensure everyone is looking at the same data while making decisions. More specifically, we see our customers are:

1. Ensuring consistent visibility of insights across the organization, from the field to corporate. Having a detailed, deep, real time level of data allows managers to see exactly where they need to make changes in operations to increase production and reduce cost.
2. Increase confidence in decision making because the field knows the executives are viewing the same data as them, and vice versa. All levels of management must be able to see the same reports that allow them to make cuts that will optimize production in the most effective way.
3. Increase speed to decision making because they can click through to actionable invoices straight from their LOE dashboards.
4. Reduce costs by turning data insights into specific cost-cut decisions tailored for specific asset and cost center owners.
5. Maintain high performing assets by the strategic and continuous allocation/re-allocation of cost.

Self-service reports populated by multiple departments while critical to provide their functional-level details, actually misdirects executive decisions and kills company-wide objectives because of department incentives and assumptions. An Enterprise Analytics solutions is a must to drive towards a single set of metrics.

Moving from Self Serviced to Centralized BI
Wayne Eckerson (BI Expert) explains the heartache of inconsistent and siloed analytics, “While self-service BI is critical for power users, it is overkill for casual users. Many companies carry self-service BI too far, and the result is report chaos, which ultimately causes usage to drop among casual users. One large energy company embraced self-service BI tools several years ago and recently found it had 26,000 reports stored on its servers in one department alone. The reports were generated by 450 users in a department of 3,500, most of whom found the tools and maze of reports too overwhelming to use. The company is now pulling back from self-service, implementing 300 ‘standardized reports’ that encompass the majority of metrics and dimensions in the 26,000 reports, and reserving self-service BI for ad hoc requirements outside standard information views.”

Learn more by downloading “Analytics in the Oil Patch” by Shrivan Kamdar. Click Here.